Keurig's next big thing is looking increasingly doomed Business Insider By Hayley Peterson Aug 8 2015
Keurig is floundering.
The company's share price has plunged 60% since the beginning of the year following a dramatic drop in sales of coffee brewers and accessories.
Last year's rollout of Keurig's latest coffee maker, the Keurig 2.0, was disappointing, and the company has been battling aggressive competition from other K-Cup makers that will force it to eventually drop prices on its coffee pods, putting pressure on profit margins, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
Now Keurig is counting on an increasingly unlikely source of future growth: a countertop soda machine.
The Keurig Kold, as it's called, will begin rolling out next month. The $300 machine, built in partnership with Coca-Cola, carbonates water to make a variety of flavored sodas. It's Keurig's answer to the SodaStream.
There's a lot riding on the success of this product. Coca-Cola, for example, spent $2.4 billion last year building a 16% stake in Keurig ahead of the machine's launch.
The soda company has lost about $1 billion on that investment so far — and it's looking increasingly unlikely that Coca-Cola will be getting that money back anytime in the near future. Coca-Cola and Keurig didn't respond to a request for comment on this story.
In a statement to Business Insider earlier this week, Keurig said: "We are confident in the long-term prospects of our business, as our hot system remains strong with an enviable category-leading position, a growing installed base and solid cash-flow generation, and we look forward to the upcoming launch of our Keurig Kold system that represents another opportunity for long-term growth and value creation."
Keurig just lowered its sales guidance for the third time this year, saying it now expects a drop in the low- to mid-single digits for the 12 months ending in September. Previously, the company said it expected a slight increase. Sales of brewers and accessories plunged 26% and profit fell 27% to $113.6 million.
Investors have been hoping Keurig Kold would reinvigorate the brand.
The machine does have some big advantages over SodaStream, such as the partnership with Coca-Cola that will allow customers to create Coke-branded products. The Kold machine also automatically chills beverages to 39 degrees, and it doesn't rely on a CO2 canister, a feature that SodaStream customers have complained about.
Keurig also claims that the cold-beverage market is five times the size of the hot-beverage market.
(Keurig)
But there are also some big obstacles to the success of Kold. Here are just a few:
1. The machine is too expensive, according to some analysts. Kold models will debut at $299 to $369, compared to the starting price of $79 for the cheapest SodaStream model. Beyond the initial cost of the machine, every soda from a Kold machine will cost $0.99 to $1.29. By comparison, SodaStream drinks cost between $0.08 to $0.20 per serving.
2. Soda consumption has been falling in the US for decades. "Keurig is rolling out Kold at a time when Americans are scaling back on soda consumption amid health concerns such as obesity and diabetes," The Wall Street Journal reports. Per capita soda consumption last year was 41.4 gallons, down from 52.4 gallons in 2004, according to data from Beverage Digest, a trade publication.
3. If the recent performance of SodaStream is any indication of Keurig Kold's potential, then investors should be worried. SodaStream sales fell 29% in the most recent quarter, including a 44% drop in the US. Sales began declining last year, after seven straight years of double-digit growth, and its shares are down by nearly half in the past year.
4. Keurig Kold needs to be incorporated into Keurig's hot-coffee machines. Until the two machines are combined, many customers could view Keurig Kold as just another appliance taking up valuable countertop space.
飲料機器の米キューリグ株が急落 減収減益、見通しも慎重
- 2015/8/7 0:10
- 日本経済新聞 電子版
【ＮＱＮニューヨーク＝横内理恵】６日の米株式市場でコーヒーなどの飲料機器メーカーのキューリグ・マウンテン・グリーン株が急落して始まった。株価は前日比20.81ドル（27.8％）安の54.17ドル前後で推移している。前日夕に発表した2015年４～６月期決算で売上高が市場予想に届かなかったほか、慎重な見通しを示したことが業績の不透明感につながった。アナリストの投資判断引き下げも売りを誘った。
コカ・コーラ、キューリグ投資の損失拡大
米飲料大手コカ・コーラは、2014年2月～15年2月に24億ドル（約3000億円）を費やし、コーヒーメーカーを製造するキューリグ・グリーン・マウンテンの持ち株比率を16％に拡大した。キューリグが発売する家庭用ドリンクマシンでコカ・コーラ製品を販売する10年契約の一環だった。
コカ・コーラが保有するキューリグ株は現在約2590万株、時価14億ドル弱だ。キューリグ株は6日の決算発表を受けて約30％下落し、2年ぶりの安値をつけた。時価総額は34億ドル減少し、100億ドルを割り込んだ。
証券取引委員会（SEC）への報告書（10-Q）によると、コカ・コーラは4-6月期（第2四半期）末の時点でキューリグ投資による累積損失4700億ドルを計上している。今後8週間で株価が回復しなければ、7-9月期（第3四半期）末時点の損失は大幅に増えることになる。キューリグ投資関連の含み損は4-6月期末時点で4億3100万ドルとなっている。
一方、キューリグは9月に発売予定の「KOLD」マシンのヒットを願うしかない。最新のホット飲料用マシンは発売後1年近くたつが、あまり受けが良くない。急落を受けた6日のキューリグ株終値は52.67ドルとなっており、製品の失敗が続けば、12年のような20ドルを下回る水準もあり得なくない。同社株は既に、昨年秋の高値158.87ドルの約3分の1となっている。
